CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-04T15:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36256/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a long duration C9.3-class flare near the vicinity of AR 3939 (S17W55) that begins at approximately 2025-01-04T14:30Z, seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It can be seen across all GOES SUVI wavelengths, but is particularly prominent in GOES SUVI 284. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T11:37Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: -16.95 hour(s)
Difference: -7.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:57Z
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